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Our gold XAUUSD analysis favours a bullish scenario following a pullback. In our reading of the 1H structure, the ABC sequence is validated. We are now waiting for a correction of the BC move to look for an entry in the Golden buy zone.
The Golden buy zone lies between 4,135 and 4,156. The 15-minute FVG within this area adds technical confluence for entry validation. Our plan uses a stop-loss at 4,120, a first target at 4,230 and an extension to 4,260.
XAUUSD chart: 1H structure and 15-minute projection
TradingView chart — XAUUSD, OANDA feed, 15 minutes. Screenshot dated October 10, 2026 at 23:07 UTC. Scenario projection, not a live quote.
Golden buy zone for gold: Fibonacci retracement and 15-minute FVG
We are watching the 50%–66.7% retracement of the BC move. The Golden buy zone is widened to 4,135–4,156 so that we work with a price range rather than a single level.
The 15-minute FVG near the upper part of this zone strengthens the confluence between the Fibonacci retracement and the price imbalance. We are waiting for price to return to this area to assess validation of a long entry.
The priority is to let price reach our area of interest. Touching the Golden buy zone alone does not confirm the setup: we look for validation around the FVG before considering a move back towards the targets.
XAUUSD targets and reward-to-risk ratios
| Possible entry | Stop-loss | Risk in pips | Target 4,230 | Extension 4,260 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,156 | 4,120 | 360 | 740 pips / 2.06 R | 1040 pips / 2.89 R |
| 4,135 | 4,120 | 150 | 950 pips / 6.33 R | 1250 pips / 8.33 R |
The ratios show the two boundaries of the Golden buy zone. At 4,156, the first target offers 2.06 R; at 4,135, it offers 6.33 R. The ratio therefore depends on the actual entry price. These calculations exclude spread, commissions and execution slippage.
XAUUSD invalidation: bullish setup cancelled below 4,120
A move below 4,120 invalidates our bullish scenario. In that case, we drop this setup and wait for a better configuration to consider a short entry.
Breaking 4,120 does not trigger a sell on its own. We will wait for fresh confirmation and define a separate short plan with its own entry, stop and targets.
For position sizing, read our guide to calculating position size. Find other perspectives in our market analysis section.
Support these analyses through Exness
For Brokelio, Exness is the best choice for readers prioritising the criteria explained in our Exness recommendation, including stable spreads and swap-free conditions that must be checked. This commercial preference does not guarantee the outcome of this setup.
Exness lists XAUUSD among its stable-spread instruments, with exceptions during volatility. XAUUSD is also covered by its swap-free instrument list, subject to eligibility and applicable rules; also check potential holding costs.
Open an Exness account through our partner link. We may receive commissions linked to attributed clients’ activity under the partner programme. The chart uses OANDA prices: check your account’s quotes and symbol conditions before applying these levels.